2026 Victorian state election
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All 88 seats in the Victorian Legislative Assembly All 40 seats in the Victorian Legislative Council 45 Assembly seats are needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2026 Victorian state election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect the 61st Parliament of Victoria.[1] All 88 seats in the Legislative Assembly (lower house) and all 40 seats in the Legislative Council (upper house) will be up for election, presuming there are no new electorates added in a redistribution.
The Labor government, currently led by Premier Jacinta Allan, will attempt to win a record fourth four-year term against the Liberal/National Coalition opposition, currently led by John Pesutto.
The election will be administered by the Victorian Electoral Commission.
Background[edit]
Previous election and parliament[edit]
The Daniel Andrews-led Labor government was returned to power in 2014 after winning a majority of seats in the Legislative Assembly at the 2014 state election. The Labor party was re-elected at the 2018 state election and again at the 2022 state election, winning 56 seats. The Liberal/National Coalition gained one seat to 28 seats, the Greens won 4 seats. In the Legislative Council, the Labor party won 15 of the 40 seats.
Jacinta Allan and the Labor government is expected to be seeking a four-year term, after the previous premier Daniel Andrews announced his resignation as Premier of Victoria and Member for Mulgrave in September 2023, effective the following day.[2]
Opposition Leader Matthew Guy stood down as Liberal leader a day after the party's poor result at the 2022 election, with John Pesutto elected as the new leader after the ensuing party room ballot.
Since the last state election there have been three by-elections; the 2023 Narracan state by-election held in January 2023, the 2023 Warrandyte state by-election held in August 2023, and the 2023 Mulgrave state by-election held on 18 November 2023.
Electoral system[edit]
Eligible Victorian electors are required to cast a ballot due to compulsory voting laws. The eligibility criteria for enrolment to vote includes being 18 years or older, an Australian citizen, and to have lived in Victoria for longer than a month.[1]
Legislative Assembly[edit]
For the election of members to single seats of the Legislative Assembly, the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) uses full preferential voting where for a vote to count, it is required to number every box on the ballot in the order of the most preferred candidate for the particular electoral district an elector is registered to vote in.[3] The election will cover all 88 Seats of the Victorian Legislative Assembly.[4]
Legislative Council[edit]
For the election of members to multi-member state regions in the Legislative Council the VEC uses optional preferential voting where voters can either vote for a political party or a group voting ticket 'above the line' or vote for individual candidates 'below the line'.[3] Members of the Legislative Council represent state regions. There are currently eight state regions, they make up of eleven Legislative Assembly districts and are each represented by five members of Parliament in the Legislative Council.[5]
When voting 'above the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to write the number 1 for the political party or group of candidates they prefer. Preferences will then be automatically distributed based on the registered preference order provided to the VEC by the group voting ticket.[3]
When voting 'below the line', for a vote to count, voters are required to number a minimum of 5 boxes on the ballot in the order of their most preferred candidate.[3]
Candidates and retiring MPs[edit]
The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2026 election:
Liberal[edit]
- Bill Tilley MLA (Benambra) – announced 13 March 2024 [6]
Date[edit]
In accordance to the timetable set out in the Electoral Act 2002 (VIC), the terms of elected officials to Victorian Parliament are on a fixed term basis. All elections since the 2006 have occurred every four years on the last Saturday of November. Unless the Governor of Victoria unexpectedly dissolves parliament, the election is expected to be held on 28 November 2026.[7]
Expected timeline of the election[edit]
- 3 November 2026: The Legislative Assembly expires prompting the need for an election to be held. This also means that there are no longer any members, business of parliament ends until a new parliament is formed, and parliament enters into a caretaker period.[8]
- 3 November 2026: On the same day that the Legislative Assembly expires, the Governor of Victoria issues a writ for the VEC to hold an election.[7]
- 10 November 2026: 7 days after the writ is issued, at 8:00 pm, the electoral roll is closed meaning people can no longer be added to the electoral roll, update the electorate they live in, or update any other information.[7]
- 13 November 2026: 10 days after the writ is issued, at noon, the period for submitting candidate nominations closes.[7]
- 28 November 2026: The last Saturday of November, nearest to the fourth year following of the previous election date, is the Election Day.[7]
- 19 December 2026: Within 21 days following election day, the Electoral Commissioner returns the writ with information regarding the successful candidates.[7]
Pre-electoral pendulum[edit]
Opinion polling[edit]
Primary Poll Graph[edit]
2PP Poll Graph[edit]
Voting intention[edit]
| Date | Firm | Sample | Primary vote | TPP vote | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALP | LIB | NAT | GRN | OTH | ALP | L/NP | ||||
| 24 March 2024 | Resolve Strategic[9][f] | ~1,100 | 33% | 35%* | 13% | 19% | 54.6% | 45.4% | ||
| 14 – 20 March 2024 | Redbridge[10] | 1,559 | 36% | 38%* | 10% | 16% | 54% | 46% | ||
| 2 – 12 December 2023 | Redbridge[11][12] | 2,000 | 37% | 36%* | 13% | 14% | 55.9% | 44.1% | ||
| 3 December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[13][f] | ~1,100 | 37% | 31%* | 11% | 20% | 56.5% | 43.5% | ||
| September – October 2023 | Resolve Strategic[14][f] | ~1,100 | 39% | 32%* | 12% | 17% | 57.5% | 42.5% | ||
| 27 September 2023 Jacinta Allan becomes premier and Labor leader | ||||||||||
| 31 August – 14 September 2023 | Redbridge[15] | 3,001 | 37% | 34%* | 13% | 16% | 56.5% | 43.5% | ||
| July – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[16][f] | ~1,100 | 39% | 28%* | 13% | 20% | 60% | 40% | ||
| 19 – 20 July 2023 | Roy Morgan[17] | 1,046 | 33% | 35.5%* | 12.5% | 19%[g] | 53% | 47% | ||
| May – June 2023 | Resolve Strategic[18][f] | 1,003 | 41% | 23% | 3% | 15% | 18% | 62.5% | 37.5% | |
| 17 – 22 May 2023 | Roy Morgan[19] | 2,095 | 42% | 28.5%* | 12.5% | 17%[h] | 61.5% | 38.5% | ||
| 19 – 22 April 2023 | Resolve Strategic[20][f] | 1,609 | 42% | 30%* | 10% | 17% | 60.5% | 39.5% | ||
| 15 – 18 February 2023 | Resolve Strategic[21][f] | 825 | 41% | 30%* | 13% | 17% | 60.9% | 39.1% | ||
| 8 December 2022 John Pesutto becomes Liberal leader and leader of the opposition | ||||||||||
| 26 November 2022 election[23] | N/A | N/A | 37.0% | 29.6% | 4.8% | 11.5% | 17.1% | 55% | 45% | |
| 21 – 24 November 2022 | Newspoll[24] | 1,226 | 38% | 35%* | 12% | 15% | 54.5% | 45.5% | ||
| * Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote. | ||||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[25] | ||||||||||
Preferred premier and satisfaction[edit]
| Date | Firm | Better premier | Allan | Pesutto | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allan | Pesutto | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | Satisfied | Dissatisfied | |||
| 24 March 2024 | Resolve Strategic[9] | 34% | 25% | not asked | not asked | |||
| 22 December 2023 | Redbridge[12] | not asked | 24% | 30% | 16% | 29% | ||
| 3 December 2023 | Resolve Strategic[13] | 34% | 22% | not asked | not asked | |||
| September – October 2023 | Resolve Strategic[14] | 38% | 19% | not asked | not asked | |||
| 27 September 2023 Allan replaces Andrews | Andrews | Pesutto | Andrews | Pesutto | ||||
| July – August 2023 | Resolve Strategic[16] | 41% | 32% | not asked | not asked | |||
| 19 – 20 July 2023 | Roy Morgan[17] | 52.5% | 47.5% | 45% | 55% | not asked | ||
| May – June 2023 | Resolve Strategic[18] | 49% | 26% | not asked | not asked | |||
| 17 – 22 May 2023 | Roy Morgan[19] | 64% | 36% | 52.5% | 47.5% | 46.5% | 53.5% | |
| 19 – 22 April 2023 | Resolve Strategic[20] | 49% | 28% | not asked | not asked | |||
| 15 – 18 February 2023 | Resolve Strategic[21] | 50% | 26% | not asked | not asked | |||
| 8 December 2022 Pesutto replaces Guy | Andrews | Guy | Andrews | Guy | ||||
| 26 November 2022 election | – | – | – | – | – | – | ||
| 21 – 24 November 2022 | Newspoll[24] | 51% | 35% | 46% | 48% | 31% | 56% | |
| * Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither". † Participants were forced to choose. | ||||||||
| Newspoll polling is published in The Australian.[25] | ||||||||
Notes[edit]
- ^ The election for the District of Narracan was deferred. A supplementary election was held on 28 January 2023.
- ^ Will Fowles has sat on the crossbench as an Independent Labor MP since 5 August 2023.
- ^ Elected at the 2023 Mulgrave state by-election following the resignation of Daniel Andrews.
- ^ The two-candidate-preferred result of the 2023 by-election was LIB 21.0% vs GRN. However Labor did not contest the by-election, therefore the LIB vs GRN margin won't be the two-candidate-preferred margin for Warrandyte at the next state election, and therefore should not be used in the pendulum. The LIB vs ALP margin for Warrandyte at the 2022 state election is used instead.
- ^ Due to the sudden death of Nationals candidate Shaun Gilchrist, the election in Narracan was deferred, and a supplementary election was instead held on 28 January 2023.
- ^ a b c d e f g Resolve Strategic does not publish TPP figures. The TPP figure shown here has been manually calculated.[22]
- ^ Legalise Cannabis 1%, Animal Justice Party 1%, independents 10.5%, Other parties 6.5%
- ^ Legalise Cannabis 1.5%, Animal Justice Party 1.5%, independents 9%, Other parties 5%
References[edit]
- ^ a b "State elections". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 4 November 2022.
- ^ "Daniel Andrews to stand down as Victorian premier immediately". The Age. 26 September 2023.
- ^ a b c d "Preferential voting". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
- ^ "State districts". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
- ^ "State regions". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
- ^ Deery, Shannon (13 March 2024). "Bill Tilley announces this will be his last term in office". Herald Sun. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
- ^ a b c d e f "Fact Sheet G3: Elections". Parliament of Victoria. 10 March 2015. Retrieved 6 November 2022.
- ^ "Fact Sheet A2: Terminology used in Parliament". Parliament of Victoria. 24 March 2015. Retrieved 7 November 2022.
- ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (28 March 2024). "Slip in Labor support pushes Pesutto's team ahead for first time in years". The Age. Retrieved 28 March 2024.
- ^ Deery, Shannon (25 March 2024). "Coalition records best primary vote result since June 2021: poll". Herald Sun. Retrieved 25 March 2024.
- ^ Douglas, Carly (22 December 2023). "Liberal brand a 'very damaged product in Victoria', Redbridge Director Tony Barry says". Herald Sun. Retrieved 22 December 2023.
- ^ a b "Victorian public opinion and vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 27 December 2023.
- ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (8 December 2023). "Support for Allan dips, but Labor holds strong lead over Coalition". The Age.
- ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (11 October 2023). "Jacinta Allan maintains commanding lead over Coalition but gap narrows". The Age.
- ^ "Victorian vote intention" (PDF). RedBridge Group. Retrieved 19 September 2023.
- ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (16 August 2023). "Labor's lead stays strong but Andrews' personal popularity falls". The Age.
- ^ a b "Support for Victorian Government and Premier Daniel Andrews plunges after cancellation of Commonwealth Games". Roy Morgan. 20 July 2023. Retrieved 21 July 2023.
- ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (14 June 2023). "'Can't get much lower': Pesutto's Coalition sinks to new low in polls". The Age. Retrieved 14 June 2023.
- ^ a b "Support for the Andrews Government up since the Victorian Election; Pesutto's handling of Moira Deeming had a negative impact on his job approval as leader". Roy Morgan. 23 May 2023. Retrieved 23 May 2023.
- ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (24 April 2023). "Labor holds lead over state Coalition, but Deeming drama fails to make dent". The Age. Retrieved 24 April 2023.
- ^ a b Smethurst, Annika (20 February 2023). "Support for Daniel Andrews rises as he marks 3000 days in office". The Age. Retrieved 21 February 2023.
- ^ "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
- ^ "2022 State election results". Victorian Electoral Commission. Retrieved 20 February 2023.
- ^ a b Baxendale, Rachel (25 November 2022). "Victorian election: Despite a swing, Newspoll puts Daniel Andrews on track to win". The Australian. Archived from the original on 25 November 2022. Retrieved 25 November 2022.
- ^ a b "Opinion Polls". Archived from the original on 27 February 2015. Retrieved 16 July 2020.
